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Alone, these two elections wouldn't mean much, but they're consistent with the generic-ballot polling, which looks a lot like 2020 before the Democrats won. In Minnesota, the Democratic candidate lost, but "ran about 3 percentage points ahead of Joe Biden's 2020 margin in the district and about even with Democrats' 2020 candidate for the seat." A race in Nebraska had a similar result. Two recent special House elections provided a "real-world field test of the national political climate," says Matthew Yglesias at Bloomberg. Recent elections show the momentum has shifted 6 hearings (Republicans having made a mistake when they chose not to participate and thus lost any control of the narrative)." Democrats still have to contend with President Biden's low approval ratings and widespread concerns about the state of the economy, but we're witnessing a "strikingly sudden recovery of Democratic fortunes." But "the Supreme Court's actions, and well-stoked fears of what might be to come in those extremist chambers, have re-energized the Democratic base. Gasoline prices were surging above $5 per gallon in many places, plunging stocks were "giving 401(k)s a painful 2022 haircut," and inflation was "cleaning out wallets and purses at grocery stores." Republicans appeared poised to pull off a "midterm rout" and take firm control of Congress. "Just a few short months ago, the Democratic Party was facing disaster," says the Chicago Tribune in an editorial.
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Have Republicans lost their edge heading into the November general elections? The future is suddenly brighter for Democrats FiveThirtyEight now says Democrats have a 61 percent chance to keep or even increase their Senate majority, and a 21 percent chance to hold onto the House. Wade, the 1973 ruling that protected abortion rights nationwide. A month earlier, the GOP led with 44.7 percent support to the Democrats' 42.9 percent, but Democrats began catching up after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. 15, edging ahead of Republicans, who had 43.4 percent. With President Biden's approval rating at or near the lowest point of his presidency, and inflation at a 40-year high, Democrats appeared headed toward disaster.īut the party pulled ahead of Republicans last week in polls forecasting results on the generic ballot, according to an analysis by poll tracker FiveThirtyEight. Democrats had 43.9 percent support for control of Congress as of Aug. The party in control of the White House almost always loses ground in midterm elections, and Republicans only need slim gains to take control of the 50-50 Senate, or the House, where Democrats hold a 221-214 majority. Republicans have been expecting to decisively win back control of the House, and take a narrow majority in the Senate. Democrats have been bracing for a potential drubbing in the November midterm elections.